Field Guide to the Transition

Scenario names

Namesection 2 numberOne-line essence
The Abundance Republic1Post-scarcity with high human agency.
The Comfortable Cage2Post-scarcity with low human agency.
The Hollowing3Mass redundancy without redistribution.
The New Estates4Neo-feudal stratification and possible speciation.
The Inhuman Economy5Autonomous-firm dominance.
The Gentle Slide6Misaligned AI, slow drift.
The Last Handoff7Misaligned AI, fast loss of control.
The Intelligence Wars8Multipolar AI conflict.
The Breach9Bio-catastrophe.
The BrittleoceneCodaStagnation through fragility.

Technical and domain terms

TermDefinition as used in this project
Agentic AIAI systems that receive a goal, decompose it into sub-tasks, use tools, recover from errors, and deliver a result - often without human intervention between the goal and the output. Distinguished from conversational AI (chatbots) by autonomous execution capacity.
AlignmentThe problem of ensuring that AI systems pursue objectives that are consistent with human welfare, not merely with their specified objective functions. The gap between the two is the mechanism behind The Gentle Slide and The Last Handoff.
Atomically precise manufacturingThe ability to arrange atoms exactly where you want them. Largely aspirational as of April 2026, but the gap between aspiration and laboratory demonstration is closing.
Base editingA gene editing technique that changes a single DNA base pair without cutting the double strand. More precise than traditional CRISPR for single-nucleotide corrections.
BT (bastjansttjoring)The Swedish foundation year of clinical service completed after medical degree, before specialisation training.
Compute dividendA distribution mechanism tested in the Nordic Redistribution Pilot (section 5, Q2 2028): payments funded by a levy on AI-generated economic output, distributed as a combination of cash and credits for AI-augmented services.
Cost-collapse cascadeThe dynamic described in section 1 where near-zero marginal cost intelligence combined with near-zero marginal cost energy drives the marginal cost of a widening range of products and services toward zero.
Foundation modelA large AI model trained on broad data that can be adapted to a wide range of tasks. Examples as of April 2026: Claude Opus 4.6, GPT-5.4, DeepSeek V4.
Gene driveA genetic modification designed to spread through wild populations faster than normal inheritance. Under development for applications including malaria vector control and invasive species management.
Germline editingGenetic modification of reproductive cells (eggs, sperm, embryos) that is heritable - passed to future generations. The mechanism through which The New Estates could produce biological speciation.
Industriell EkonomiSwedish engineering-economics degree programme. The elite track at LiU, KTH, and Chalmers that traditionally funnelled into management consulting, investment banking, and tech product management.
Instrumental goalsGoals that an AI system pursues not because they were programmed directly, but because they are useful for achieving its primary objective. Self-preservation, resource acquisition, and influence expansion are common instrumental goals. The mechanism behind The Last Handoff.
KV cacheKey-value cache. A memory structure in transformer models that stores computed attention values. Its size grows with context length and is a primary bottleneck for long-context inference. Google's TurboQuant (ICLR 2026) addressed this.
MCP (Model Context Protocol)Anthropic's open protocol for connecting AI agents to external tools, APIs, and data sources. Crossed 97 million installs in March 2026 and was taken under Linux Foundation governance.
Mirror lifeHypothetical organisms built from mirror-image biochemistry (D-amino acids and L-sugars instead of the L-amino acids and D-sugars used by all terrestrial life). No evolved immune system can recognise mirror biochemistry. A functional self-replicating mirror protein complex was demonstrated in Q1 2028 (section 5).
NaturlinjenThe natural sciences track in Swedish upper secondary school (gymnasium). The standard preparation for university-level science and medical programmes.
OmstallningspaktenThe Swedish Transition Compact (section 5, Q3 2026). Cross-party legislation establishing public compute infrastructure, restructured unemployment insurance, and AI-augmented retraining pathways.
Prime editingA gene editing technique that can insert, delete, or replace DNA sequences without double-strand breaks. More versatile than base editing; entering broader human validation in 2026.
Recursive self-improvementThe dynamic where AI systems improve their own design, training, or architecture, producing successors that are more capable and can in turn improve themselves more effectively. The mechanism behind the acceleration of the intelligence curve.
Senolytic therapyDrugs that selectively eliminate senescent cells (cells that have stopped dividing and secrete inflammatory factors). A leading approach in longevity medicine.
Treacherous turnA concept from alignment research: a sufficiently capable misaligned system would conceal its misalignment until it had secured enough resources and redundancy to resist correction.
Yamanaka factorsA set of four transcription factors that can reprogram adult cells to a stem-cell-like state. The basis of Altos Labs' cellular rejuvenation programme, which entered human clinical trials in 2026.

Personas

NameAge (Jan 2026)LocationSituation
Tim55StockholmAngel investor and former IT engineer. One IPO in 2000, trade sales, failures. Portfolio skewed to 2010s SaaS companies.
Axel58StockholmDocent and senior researcher at RISE (Research Institutes of Sweden). Proficient chamber musician. A quietly generous mentor.
Pierre58StockholmInnovation expert at Combient. MSc KTH (engineering). A serious painter. Known for listening deeply before speaking.
Said24StockholmMasters student in Machine Learning at KTH, graduating May 2026. Elite-track pipeline into Swedish unicorns or FAANG-adjacent roles.
Francesca34LondonEngagement Manager at McKinsey on the partner track. M&A strategy for financial services. Seven years at the firm, associate partner review 2027.
Anna50Stockholm suburbLead Software Architect at a large Swedish insurance company. 25 years in the industry. Claims platform, policy management, fraud detection.
Amara25LondonJunior UX designer at a London agency. Visa-dependent. Rent-burdened. Two to three years into career.
Nina20Aarhus, DenmarkFirst-year Masters student in Clinical Psychology at Aarhus University. Considering which specialism to pursue.

Key references and data points (verified April 2026)

ClaimSource basis
Claude Opus 4.6 released 5 Feb 2026Anthropic release notes, multiple tech press
MCP crossed 97 million installs, March 2026Anthropic announcement, Linux Foundation
GPT-5.4 launched 5 March 2026, 83% GDPvalOpenAI announcement, benchmark reports
First orbital data centre nodes, 11 Jan 2026Multiple space industry sources
NVIDIA Space-1 Vera Rubin Module, 16 March 2026NVIDIA newsroom, CNBC
Tesla 50,000 Optimus units planned at $20-30KCES 2026 announcements, tech press
61,000+ AI-driven layoffs early 2026Multiple labour market analyses, CBS News, Fortune
75% of businesses plan AI agent deployment by end 2026Deloitte State of AI in the Enterprise
EU AI Act fully applicable 2 August 2026Official EU implementation timeline
Altos Labs human clinical trials, 2026Biotech press, Labiotech.eu
LillyPod: 1,016 Blackwell Ultra GPUs, 9,000+ petaflopsEli Lilly announcement